Monday, May 2, 2011

A Dark and Dangerous Future for Libya

Special Comment

I am sure you have all heard by now that
Osama bin Laden
the leader of al Qaeda, the Mastermind of the 9/11 attacks,
Osama bin Laden 
is dead.

I will very likely comment on this in more detail later, but for now I just wanted to say -GOOD! 
and to the U.S. Navy Seals who conducted the raid
- Bravo Zulu! Well Done!

We have all been following the fighting in Libya. What will happen in the near future is uncertain. I still believe the key to how things will develop is Misrata. If the city can withstand Gadhafi’s assault and hold out (this will require direct assistance from NATO) then Gadhafi may be forced to accept a truce or cease-fire turning Libya into a divided sate. His own forces may even turn on him and force him out.

The “rebels” say they will not accept a cease-fire until Gadhafi steps down, but NATO, whose member countries are loosing patience with the effort and expense of the operation, may force the issue at some point even if it does not include Gadhafi/s immediate removal from power.

If, on the other hand, Misrata falls the opposition will have little choice but to accept a truce. In that scenario it would not be surprising to see the UN impose something similar to the division of North and South Korea. Either way, Libya’s future is a dark and dangerous one.

I think there is a very important element to all of this that everyone seems to be unaware of –or is ignoring on purpose. The opposition is arming people to go fight on the front lines. They are handing out everything for RPG’s to shotguns, anything and everything they can beg, borrow or steel. At the same time Gadhafi is opening up his armories and handing out AK-47’s to every man, woman and child that can carry one.

Just what do you think is going to happen with all those weapons and explosives floating around even if Gadhafi steps down and Libya reunites under one government? We have seen this in the Middle East before. That was the great blunder made by the US in Iraq when it defeated Hussein and allowed the Iraqi Army to “dissolve” rather than surrender, taking all their weapons with them and failing to secure the armories and weapons depots quickly. Crime will escalate and turn murderous. Every political group that looses an election, or simply does not like what the government does, will have the potential to become an armed guerilla force. Democracy does not have much of a chance under those conditions. Only a strong dictator-like state can hope to bring peace under those conditions –and in the Middle East that very likely means an Islamic dictatorship, probably controlled by some faction similar to the Islamic Brotherhood.

In my opinion, Libya’s future is already written and it is a very dark and dangerous one.

Live Long and Prosper....

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